{
  "as_of": "2026-11-01",
  "spot_usd": 77401.0172870368,
  "cpi_base": 336.94,
  "target_years": [
    2030,
    2040,
    2050,
    2060
  ],
  "display_end_year": 2065,
  "fatal_loss_model": "integrated",
  "fatal_loss_scenario": "central",
  "fatal_loss_estimate_as_of": "2026-11-01",
  "fatal_loss_inputs": "permanent_loss_inputs.json",
  "loss_severity": "The study concerns approximately 99% or greater irreversible real economic loss. Prices approximate these states as zero; a 1% real residual sensitivity is exported separately.",
  "simulation_end_year": 2070,
  "simulation_paths": 262144,
  "source_order": [
    "statistical",
    "demand",
    "equilibrium"
  ],
  "source_weights": [
    0.3333333333333333,
    0.3333333333333333,
    0.3333333333333333
  ],
  "trend_months": 120,
  "currency_assumption": "USD BTC prices and world wealth use one common macro CPI-center path. The allocation calculation additionally draws persistent unexpected inflation and short-rate innovations; mean CPI remains the same macro center.",
  "antithetic_market_draws": true,
  "stratified_lifetime_draws": true,
  "equilibrium_terminal_year": 2200,
  "equilibrium_max_step_years": 0.25,
  "equilibrium_parameter_paths": 20000,
  "hazard_status": "Four-method semi-quantitative estimate; coefficients, permanence adjustments, transfer ratios, recovery assumptions and Bayesian priors retain judgment. Not empirically calibrated mortality.",
  "hazard_rationale": "Replace the constant 0.5% annual reference with the supplied four-method study, using its fixed equal-weight cumulative-probability pool. Do not add the former hazard on top.",
  "method_version": "unified_wealth_concentration_v15_fitted_deceleration",
  "seed": 2026110517,
  "macro_role": "Shared household net worth and CPI paths. Prices use BTC share of full household wealth.",
  "allocation_process": "X=logit(s), P=s*W/Q. dX=[sum_j weights_j*dlog(F_j)/dt-kappa*(H_t(s)-H_t(s0))]dt+sigma0*m(t)*dB. H is the Taylor remainder beyond ordinary first-order risk costs.",
  "native_trajectory": "Demand retains original adoption/exit and evolving ordinary risk budgets. Equilibrium retains the first-order variance and jump-risk FOC. The common layer contains only nonlinear concentration and competing-income remainders.",
  "coefficient_calibration": "monetary_inputs.json: full-wealth log odds; 120-month actual-time-standardized innovations for diffusion.",
  "diffusion": "Measured 120-month initial diffusion; long-run anchor 55% from JPM 2027 illustrative BTC risk, also checked against Fidelity/BlackRock historical risk discussions. Share the valuation transition with tau=15 years; future decline and speed are scenarios, not observed 2060 parameters.",
  "limitations": [
    "The high-share feedback is a reduced-form market-adjustment approximation motivated by portfolio utility and competing income, not a solved production/OLG general equilibrium.",
    "Participating investable wealth a(t)=0.5*adoption(t) is prescribed, rather than a measured pool or an endogenous ownership distribution; exhaustion defines the model domain.",
    "Response, nonlinear risk aversion, participating liquid wealth and competing-income flow remain scenario assumptions; the future diffusion decline also remains an original-model assumption, not an empirical long-horizon estimate.",
    "Native signals are anchored at the observed price; their absolute current fair values are not independently identified.",
    "Past statistical trends and market innovations need not describe future adoption or prices.",
    "Shared deterministic wealth/CPI excludes feedback of BTC collapse on the world economy.",
    "Numerical checks validate calculation and discretization, not long-horizon probabilities."
  ],
  "integration_substeps_per_month": 2,
  "share_feedback": {
    "response": 1.0,
    "risk_aversion": 4.0,
    "competing_income_yield": 0.03,
    "investable_fraction": 0.5,
    "adoption_initial": 0.3,
    "adoption_longrun": 0.65,
    "adoption_years": 16.0
  },
  "feedback_assumption_status": "Ordinary first-order risk remains native. Nonlinear CRRA and competing-income remainders enter at unit response (kappa=1), with no extra amplification. Gamma=4, income proxy=3%, participating wealth and transition assumptions are documented in valuation_evidence_inputs.json. No gold target or selected global-share threshold.",
  "sensitivity_simulation_paths": 65536,
  "wealth_basis": "One MGI/IMF household net-worth path; demand household financial assets are normalized to 65% gross financial assets, retaining source composition/uncertainty. No separate global household aggregate.",
  "diffusion_months": 120,
  "equilibrium_market_calibration": "AssetModel supplies literature-forward equity returns, 120-month volatility/correlation and the same short-rate curve. Archived uncertainty is recentered on observed starting BTC risk, the JPM 55% forward risk anchor and current ETF fee proxies. Adoption and utility uncertainty remain structural scenarios; independent permanent loss is unchanged.",
  "target_date_convention": "January 1 at 00:00 UTC, not December 31. Month-end simulation observations are retained and exact January-1 observations are added.",
  "valuation_evidence": "valuation_evidence_inputs.json",
  "statistical_family": "power_transformed_age",
  "statistical_calibration": "Fit a power transform of age to the last 120 monthly full-wealth log odds. Shape zero nests the old log-age model; shape is estimated jointly with slope and bootstrapped in six-month blocks. Translate changes to the observed current price. Lower-quantile curves are diagnostics, never a floor or the mean.",
  "anchor_time_convention": "00:00:00 UTC; preceding UTC day's Coin Metrics PriceUSD close"
}