{ "estimate_as_of": "2026-11-01", "days_per_year": 365.2425, "method_order": [ "reference_class", "fault_tree", "hazard", "bayesian" ], "weights": [ 0.25, 0.25, 0.25, 0.25 ], "curves": { "low": { "reference_rate": 0.00044532171431180533, "fault_tree_times": [ 4.1670944646365085, 14.168668761165527, 24.167505150687557, 34.169079447216575 ], "fault_tree_probabilities": [ 0.008380061984762932, 0.03342375120598784, 0.06506509692563489, 0.097915573561282 ], "hazard_parameters": { "a": 0.0015, "b": 0.001, "c": 0.004, "tau": 5.0, "delay": 8.0, "eta": 16.0 }, "bayesian_observed_age": 13.511571079488284, "bayesian_states": [ { "posterior_weight": 0.6989552312746375, "posterior_rate": 513.5115710794882, "lambda_prior_shape": 1.0, "age_slope": 0.0 }, { "posterior_weight": 0.26916602111246013, "posterior_rate": 214.88079022725876, "lambda_prior_shape": 1.0, "age_slope": 0.015 }, { "posterior_weight": 0.03187874761290239, "posterior_rate": 66.25000937502925, "lambda_prior_shape": 1.0, "age_slope": 0.03 } ] }, "central": { "reference_rate": 0.003551172206021543, "fault_tree_times": [ 4.1670944646365085, 14.168668761165527, 24.167505150687557, 34.169079447216575 ], "fault_tree_probabilities": [ 0.053342589660088535, 0.1814305711363634, 0.2858753978702535, 0.37517841949892206 ], "hazard_parameters": { "a": 0.003, "b": 0.0025, "c": 0.012, "tau": 5.0, "delay": 4.0, "eta": 12.0 }, "bayesian_observed_age": 13.511571079488284, "bayesian_states": [ { "posterior_weight": 0.4949128609004423, "posterior_rate": 263.5115710794883, "lambda_prior_shape": 1.0, "age_slope": 0.0 }, { "posterior_weight": 0.3916929624358881, "posterior_rate": 116.25000937502925, "lambda_prior_shape": 1.0, "age_slope": 0.03 }, { "posterior_weight": 0.11339417666366959, "posterior_rate": 43.98844767057021, "lambda_prior_shape": 1.0, "age_slope": 0.06 } ] }, "high": { "reference_rate": 0.011206668019141382, "fault_tree_times": [ 4.1670944646365085, 14.168668761165527, 24.167505150687557, 34.169079447216575 ], "fault_tree_probabilities": [ 0.2687363029243297, 0.5682482432993329, 0.7017144445660553, 0.7815500223671761 ], "hazard_parameters": { "a": 0.005, "b": 0.008, "c": 0.03, "tau": 5.0, "delay": 0.0, "eta": 8.0 }, "bayesian_observed_age": 13.511571079488284, "bayesian_states": [ { "posterior_weight": 0.2606960729452878, "posterior_rate": 138.51157107948828, "lambda_prior_shape": 1.0, "age_slope": 0.0 }, { "posterior_weight": 0.497198031448204, "posterior_rate": 67.61922852279973, "lambda_prior_shape": 1.0, "age_slope": 0.045 }, { "posterior_weight": 0.24210589560650822, "posterior_rate": 34.226885966111176, "lambda_prior_shape": 1.0, "age_slope": 0.09 } ] } }, "headline": { "probabilities": { "reference_class": { "low": [ 0.001853976908362852, 0.006289752035736305, 0.010704608318216425, 0.015101051113685397 ], "central": [ 0.014689116699351036, 0.04907052950179554, 0.08224331506153598, 0.11426749339129497 ], "high": [ 0.0456256120026435, 0.1468190045577884, 0.23725934491875791, 0.3181335966779305 ] }, "fault_tree": { "low": [ 0.008380061984762932, 0.03342375120598784, 0.06506509692563489, 0.097915573561282 ], "central": [ 0.053342589660088535, 0.1814305711363634, 0.2858753978702535, 0.37517841949892206 ], "high": [ 0.2687363029243297, 0.5682482432993329, 0.7017144445660553, 0.7815500223671761 ] }, "hazard": { "low": [ 0.008372639343917614, 0.025107089419670124, 0.054060740178482294, 0.0904517171680316 ], "central": [ 0.0187354838624767, 0.0854036518460429, 0.18137609918731554, 0.2811412269151802 ], "high": [ 0.0722973496815422, 0.3042572046275567, 0.5107430856436236, 0.6626889988662402 ] }, "bayesian": { "low": [ 0.014611156972503873, 0.048347842141534064, 0.08016779630583623, 0.1101452151566923 ], "central": [ 0.04485522267255869, 0.13724114315084265, 0.21285625703541275, 0.2760020127194243 ], "high": [ 0.1096165345163323, 0.29830888082036905, 0.42433429629069447, 0.51399894022888 ] } }, "pool": { "low": [ 0.008304458802386817, 0.028292108700732083, 0.05249956043204246, 0.07840338924992282 ], "central": [ 0.03290560322361874, 0.11328647390876112, 0.19058776728862944, 0.26164728813120536 ], "high": [ 0.12406894978121193, 0.32940833332626174, 0.4685127928547828, 0.5690928895350567 ] }, "horizon_years": { "2030": 4.1670944646365085, "2040": 14.168668761165527, "2050": 24.167505150687557, "2060": 34.169079447216575 } }, "definition": "Approximately 99% or greater irreversible loss of real economic value, not necessarily an exactly zero quote. Value-preserving successor forks count as survival.", "continuous_curve": "Reference, hazard and Bayesian formulas are evaluated directly. The four fault-tree cumulative probabilities are joined with monotone PCHIP in cumulative hazard. No extra risk is added to the pooled curve.", "date_convention": "All models start at 00:00 UTC on the shared price anchor. Dates denote instants without an added day. Year-end headline columns include December 31 and are evaluated at January 1 of the next year; article price and loss tables use January 1 of the labelled year.", "date_calibration": { "as_of": "2026-11-01", "information_cutoff_exclusive": "2026-11-01T00:00:00Z", "observation_policy": "Use dated pre-cutoff CMC captures and the February 2026 Nxt migration announcement. Captures are asynchronous and do not establish the exact state at the anchor.", "changes": "Recompute reference-class observation length and rate, quantum-arrival conditioning, Bayesian survival update, and all future horizons from the cutoff-restricted inputs." }, "models": { "reference_class": { "method": "reference_class", "as_of": "2026-11-01", "cohort_date": "2013-12-31", "horizons": [ 2030, 2040, 2050, 2060 ], "year_days": 365.2425, "denominator": 9, "raw_proxy_untracked_count": 4, "known_balance_preserving_migration_exclusions": [ "NXT" ], "central_candidate_count": 3, "formula": "P_BTC(t) = 1 - (1 - (k/n)*r)^(c*t/T); T = days(as_of-cohort_date)/365.2425; t = days(next_year_01_01-as_of)/365.2425", "scenarios": { "low": { "candidate_count": 2, "permanence_fraction": 0.25, "btc_hazard_ratio": 0.1 }, "central": { "candidate_count": 3, "permanence_fraction": 0.5, "btc_hazard_ratio": 0.25 }, "high": { "candidate_count": 3, "permanence_fraction": 0.75, "btc_hazard_ratio": 0.5 } }, "one_way_sensitivities": { "PTSも候補から除外": { "candidate_count": 2 }, "NXTを補正しない素朴なproxy_不適切な比較対照": { "candidate_count": 4 }, "永久性係数0.25": { "permanence_fraction": 0.25 }, "永久性係数0.75": { "permanence_fraction": 0.75 }, "BTC移植係数0.10": { "btc_hazard_ratio": 0.1 }, "BTC移植係数0.50": { "btc_hazard_ratio": 0.5 }, "BTC優位性を全く認めない": { "btc_hazard_ratio": 1.0 }, "proxyをすべて回復不能な価値喪失とみなす_上方ストレス": { "permanence_fraction": 1.0 } }, "parameter_evidence": { "k_n": "2013年末の上位10銘柄からBTCを除く9銘柄を固定。2026年2〜10月の基準日前の保存記録では4銘柄が非追跡。2月9日公表のNXT移行を踏まえて除外し、中心候補は3銘柄。", "r": "候補群のうち99%実質毀損・構造的不可逆性をともに満たす比率に相当する判断パラメータ。実測・専門家の公表確率ではない。0.50は中点の作業仮定。", "c": "BTCの成熟・規模・ネットワーク効果を若い2013年altcoin群へ移植する比例累積ハザード係数。点推定0.25は判断。下方方向には研究の一般的根拠があるが数値は識別不能。", "stationarity": "歴史の観測時点proxyから定常な将来生存曲線へ変換。2030-2060年に妥当との統計的検証はない。" }, "uncertainty_interpretation": "low/highは複数仮定を同時に動かす決定論的シナリオ。被覆確率を持つ信頼区間・信用区間ではない。Wilson区間は独立Bernoulliという非現実的仮定の標本誤差参考値のみ。", "known_limitations": [ "3/9は回復不能な価値喪失の確認件数ではない。保存日の異なる分類を基準日に持ち越す近似である。", "CMC非追跡は対象取引所APIや掲載方針にも左右される。単一データベンダーの欠測を失敗と混同しない。", "初回非追跡・回復履歴は不明。保存記録の間の変化も不明であり、Kaplan-Meier推定でも基準日当日の全銘柄同時観測でもない。", "2013年末上位という条件を固定したが、その年までの生存を条件付けている。launch cohortではない。", "PTSの旧持分・BTS等の派生資産の合算回収価値は未復元。中央は未確認候補、lowは候補除外。", "NXTの保有権継承を確認したことは価値水準を保証しないが、旧チェーン停止のみで失敗と数えない。", "99%閾値と5年持続要件は全銘柄について検証できず、永久性係数に集約される。", "同じ市場の銘柄は相関し、9独立観測と扱うと不確実性を過小評価する。", "国家貨幣・通信規格の廃止件数は保有価値/機能の後継移行を含むため数値プールしない。" ] }, "fault_tree": { "method": "fault_tree", "as_of": "2026-11-01", "year_basis": 365.2425, "horizons": [ 2030, 2040, 2050, 2060 ], "probability_type": "回復不能な価値喪失の累積確率。low/highはモデル仮定を同時に変えたシナリオであり信頼区間ではない。", "event_definition": "BTC保有者に帰属する実質経済価値の基準日比99%以上の毀損、構造的に回復不能。5年持続は事後認定の目安。イベント時点は構造的崩壊開始。保有者に価値が帰属する合意フォークは存続。世界経済が価値を測れる状態に条件付ける。", "combination": "P(H)=1-sum_z w_z product_i[1-q_i,z(H)]. 条件付き独立、潜在状態Z=頑健/脆弱で応答能力の共通原因依存を表す。二重計上する後続カスケードは起点となった枝に含める。", "branches": [ { "id": "Q", "name": "量子暗号破綻・移行失敗", "formula": "q_Q,z(H_j)=sum_{k<=j}(F_Q(H_k)-F_Q(H_{k-1}))*unprepared_k*r_Q,z; H_0=as_of,F_Q(H_0)=0", "trigger": "BTCに関わる楕円曲線暗号を実務上破れる能力の到来", "conditional_event": "移行未完了・実害を防げないこと AND 回復失敗", "evidence_ids": [ "F01", "F02", "F03", "F04", "F05" ], "classification": "F_Qは専門家調査をRSAからECCに移植した代理値。移行・回復パラメータは分析者判断。" }, { "id": "B", "name": "実装・非量子暗号の重大障害", "formula": "q_B,z(H)=trigger_cdf_B(H)*r_B,z", "trigger": "コンセンサス・供給・所有権を実質的に脅かす重大な実装/非量子暗号事故。軽微なDoSや修正済脆弱性の件数ではない。", "conditional_event": "パッチ、再編、社会的合意・所有権復元が失敗し回復不能な価値喪失に至る", "evidence_ids": [ "F06", "F07", "F08" ], "classification": "事故存在・回復実績は観測。発生CDFと不可逆化確率は判断。" }, { "id": "S", "name": "採掘・安全保障予算の構造不全", "formula": "q_S,z(H)=trigger_cdf_S(H)*r_S,z", "trigger": "独立した経済インセンティブ不全から持続的な攻撃・検閲・決済不能が生じる。採掘収入低下だけでは該当しない。", "conditional_event": "手数料需要、ハッシュ再配分、保有者支援・規則変更等による回復が失敗", "evidence_ids": [ "F09", "F10", "F11", "F12" ], "classification": "補助金規則・手数料比率は観測。危機への変換及び回復確率は判断。" }, { "id": "R", "name": "世界的な規制・金融アクセス排除", "formula": "q_R,z(H)=trigger_cdf_R(H)*r_R,z", "trigger": "主要市場での協調した保有・換金・採掘排除が生じ、分散や迂回の余地も大きく狭まる。単独国の禁止は該当しない。", "conditional_event": "合法市場・P2P・地理的移動の回復経路が持続的に閉じる", "evidence_ids": [ "F13", "F14", "F15" ], "classification": "地域間の規制差は観測。将来の協調排除率は判断。" }, { "id": "D", "name": "代替・信認の持続的喪失", "formula": "q_D,z(H)=trigger_cdf_D(H)*r_D,z", "trigger": "上記起点と別の需要変化・代替により、少なくとも2年にわたる大規模な構造的需要喪失が生じる", "conditional_event": "価値保存・決済・収集需要が回復せず99%以上喪失に定着", "evidence_ids": [ "F13", "F16" ], "classification": "無保証・非配当資産としての需要依存は構造的事実。未来の消失率は判断。" } ], "quantum_survey": { "source_id": "F01", "source_year": 2025, "survey_anchor_date": "2025-12-31", "timeframes_years": [ 5, 10, 15, 20, 30 ], "respondents": 26, "bin_labels": [ "<1%", "1–5%", "5–30%", "30–70%", "70–95%", "95–99%", "99–100%" ], "counts_by_bin": [ [ 13, 3, 0, 0, 0 ], [ 5, 4, 3, 0, 0 ], [ 6, 6, 5, 2, 1 ], [ 1, 7, 3, 6, 3 ], [ 1, 4, 9, 6, 5 ], [ 0, 1, 4, 4, 5 ], [ 0, 1, 2, 8, 12 ] ], "bin_lower": [ 0, 0.01, 0.05, 0.3, 0.7, 0.95, 0.99 ], "bin_upper": [ 0.01, 0.05, 0.3, 0.7, 0.95, 0.99, 1.0 ], "interpolation": "F=0 at survey anchor; piecewise-linear F between survey horizons. Beyond 30y, hold last 10y log-survival slope. Shift is RSA-to-ECC/time-shift judgement.", "conditioning": "F_Q(H)=[F_raw(H+shift)-F_raw(as_of+shift)]/[1-F_raw(as_of+shift)]. Assumes no operative adversarial CRQC at as_of; no public demonstration is evidence, not proof. Separate hidden-capability sensitivity is reported.", "midpoint_warning": "中点平均は分析者が計算便宜上用いるもので、報告著者は最良推定値とみなすべきでないと注意している。調査の幅は信頼区間ではない。" }, "scenarios": { "low": { "fragile_weight": 0.1, "quantum_bin_position": 0.0, "quantum_time_shift_years": -3.0, "quantum_unprepared": [ 0.25, 0.1, 0.04, 0.02 ], "trigger_cdf": { "B": [ 0.04, 0.12, 0.2, 0.27 ], "S": [ 0.015, 0.08, 0.18, 0.3 ], "R": [ 0.015, 0.04, 0.08, 0.12 ], "D": [ 0.02, 0.07, 0.15, 0.24 ] }, "irrecoverable_given_trigger": { "Q": [ 0.12, 0.4 ], "B": [ 0.02, 0.08 ], "S": [ 0.07, 0.25 ], "R": [ 0.04, 0.16 ], "D": [ 0.2, 0.45 ] } }, "central": { "fragile_weight": 0.25, "quantum_bin_position": 0.5, "quantum_time_shift_years": 0.0, "quantum_unprepared": [ 0.45, 0.25, 0.12, 0.06 ], "trigger_cdf": { "B": [ 0.08, 0.2, 0.32, 0.43 ], "S": [ 0.04, 0.2, 0.4, 0.6 ], "R": [ 0.04, 0.1, 0.17, 0.25 ], "D": [ 0.05, 0.16, 0.3, 0.44 ] }, "irrecoverable_given_trigger": { "Q": [ 0.25, 0.6 ], "B": [ 0.04, 0.16 ], "S": [ 0.15, 0.45 ], "R": [ 0.1, 0.3 ], "D": [ 0.35, 0.65 ] } }, "high": { "fragile_weight": 0.5, "quantum_bin_position": 1.0, "quantum_time_shift_years": 3.0, "quantum_unprepared": [ 0.75, 0.5, 0.3, 0.2 ], "trigger_cdf": { "B": [ 0.15, 0.35, 0.53, 0.68 ], "S": [ 0.09, 0.36, 0.6, 0.78 ], "R": [ 0.08, 0.22, 0.35, 0.48 ], "D": [ 0.12, 0.3, 0.49, 0.66 ] }, "irrecoverable_given_trigger": { "Q": [ 0.4, 0.85 ], "B": [ 0.08, 0.32 ], "S": [ 0.28, 0.65 ], "R": [ 0.2, 0.5 ], "D": [ 0.5, 0.8 ] } } }, "calibration_warning": "量子到来の代理以外、枝の確率を識別できる頻度データは存在しない。資料は破綻機序・回復経路・制約を支えるが、入力値そのものを証明しない。低/高ケースの組合せにも頻度的被覆確率は割り当てていない。", "unknown_causes": "列挙外の破綻は未計上。D/Bにあらゆる未知事象を押し込めて完全な網羅性を主張しない。", "onset_timing_assumption": "失敗が不可逆化する経路では、重大起点の発生を構造的崩壊の開始時点とみなす。価格条件の事後確認は後日でもよい。起点から構造的崩壊開始までの別個の待ち時間はモデル化していない。rはこの発生時点の定義を満たす確率であり、期限後に初めて不可逆化する任意の将来損失を含めない。" }, "hazard": { "method": "time_varying_hazard", "as_of": "2026-11-01", "timezone": "Asia/Tokyo", "year_days": 365.2425, "horizons": [ 2030, 2040, 2050, 2060 ], "independence_note": "Constructed before viewing numerical outputs of other methods; evidence need not be independent.", "formula": "lambda(t)=b+a*exp(-t/tau)+c*(1-exp(-max(t-delay,0)/eta)); H(t)=b*t+a*tau*(1-exp(-t/tau))+c*(x-eta*(1-exp(-x/eta))), x=max(t-delay,0); P=1-exp(-H)", "parameters": { "low": { "a": 0.0015, "b": 0.001, "c": 0.004, "tau": 5.0, "delay": 8.0, "eta": 16.0 }, "base": { "a": 0.003, "b": 0.0025, "c": 0.012, "tau": 5.0, "delay": 4.0, "eta": 12.0 }, "high": { "a": 0.005, "b": 0.008, "c": 0.03, "tau": 5.0, "delay": 0.0, "eta": 8.0 } }, "parameter_units": { "a": "per year", "b": "per year", "c": "per year", "tau": "years", "delay": "years", "eta": "years" }, "classification": "All numeric hazard coefficients are explicit analyst scenario assumptions, not empirically fitted frequencies.", "rationale": { "a": "Early residual vulnerability/fragility decays with learning. No empirical count estimates this coefficient.", "b": "Irreducible mature-system background risk floor. No observed reference sample identifies the floor.", "c": "Long-run increase due to security funding, technological substitution and adaptation pressure; not added to fault-tree probabilities.", "tau": "Five-year maturation timescale is a judgment.", "delay": "Four-year base lag approximates exposure after next subsidy reduction and migration planning horizon; not an exact failure or halving date.", "eta": "Twelve-year saturation timescale is a judgment; neither quantum arrival date nor a point estimate from expert survey." }, "uncertainty_type": "Low/high are scenario stress bounds, not confidence or credible intervals.", "sensitivity": { "global_multiplier": [ 0.5, 1.0, 2.0 ], "one_at_a_time_parameters": [ "a", "b", "c", "tau", "delay", "eta" ], "alternative_shapes": [ "constant_initial", "constant_long_run", "no_rising_pressure", "adaptation_after_2040" ] } }, "bayesian": { "method": "半定量ベイズ生存モデル：右打切り尤度と弱い証拠更新", "version": "1.0", "as_of_date": "2026-11-01", "timezone": "Asia/Tokyo", "observation_start": "2013-04-28", "years": [ 2030, 2040, 2050, 2060 ], "days_per_year": 365.2425, "regimes": [ { "id": "D", "name": "持続・適応", "prior_weight": 0.4, "lambda_prior_shape": 1.0, "lambda_prior_mean": 0.004, "age_slope": 0.0 }, { "id": "M", "name": "摩擦を伴う継続", "prior_weight": 0.4, "lambda_prior_shape": 1.0, "lambda_prior_mean": 0.01, "age_slope": 0.03 }, { "id": "F", "name": "脆弱・構造移行困難", "prior_weight": 0.2, "lambda_prior_shape": 1.0, "lambda_prior_mean": 0.04, "age_slope": 0.06 } ], "evidence_power": 0.5, "use_survival_likelihood": true, "evidence_groups": [ { "id": "B1", "name": "制度・保有基盤", "relative_likelihood": [ 1.5, 1.0, 0.6 ], "sources": [ "B02", "B03" ], "status": "分析者の条件付き尤度比判断。出典中にこの値はない" }, { "id": "B2", "name": "修復・協調能力", "relative_likelihood": [ 1.25, 1.0, 0.8 ], "sources": [ "B05", "B06" ], "status": "分析者の条件付き尤度比判断。生存証拠との重複をpowerで抑制" }, { "id": "B3", "name": "未解決の経済・暗号移行負担", "relative_likelihood": [ 0.7, 1.0, 1.6 ], "sources": [ "B07", "B08", "B09", "B10", "B11" ], "status": "分析者の条件付き尤度比判断。専門家の個別論拠を独立試行扱いしない" } ], "prior_judgment_notice": "全レジーム事前比率・平均強度・形状・傾き・尤度比・powerは分析者の明示的仮定。専門家によるBTCの回復不能な価値喪失の確率の正式なelicitationでも推定された故障率でもない。事前分布は2013時点に置いた分析上の再構成で、当時公開の予測ではない。", "equations": { "intensity": "h(a|lambda,r)=lambda*(1+beta_r*a)", "exposure": "A(a,r)=a+0.5*beta_r*a^2", "prior": "lambda|r ~ Gamma(shape=alpha_r, rate=b_r=alpha_r/mu_r)", "survival_likelihood": "P(T>a0|r)=(b_r/(b_r+A(a0,r)))^alpha_r", "posterior_state": "w_r proportional pi_r*P(T>a0|r)*product_g(BF_gr^evidence_power)", "posterior_rate": "lambda|r,T>a0 ~ Gamma(alpha_r,b_r+A(a0,r))", "future_exposure": "U(t,r)=A(a0+t,r)-A(a0,r)", "predictive": "P(loss by t)=sum_r w_r*[1-(B_r/(B_r+U(t,r)))^alpha_r]", "probability_cdf": "P(q(t)<=x|data)=sum_r w_r*GammaCDF(-log(1-x)/U(t,r);alpha_r,B_r)", "interval": "q(t)の事後10–90%点。指定モデル内の主観的信用区間であり客観的頻度保証はない" } }, "integration": { "as_of": "2026-11-01", "timezone": "Asia/Tokyo", "horizons": [ 2030, 2040, 2050, 2060 ], "days_per_year": 365.2425, "methods": [ "reference_class", "fault_tree", "hazard", "bayesian" ], "weights": [ 0.25, 0.25, 0.25, 0.25 ], "formula": "P_pool(t)=sum_m w_m P_m(t)", "weight_choice": "成績を測れる予測検証標本がないため、出力の照合前に等ウェイトを選択した。最適性の主張はしない。", "uncertainty_rule": "低・中央・高の各シナリオを同じ固定ウェイトで線形統合。低高は確率的被覆率のない感度範囲。標本数4を理由とする標準誤差縮小は行わない。この範囲は全手法の包絡範囲ではない。", "alternative_weights": { "mechanism_emphasis": [ 0.15, 0.35, 0.2, 0.3 ], "reference_emphasis": [ 0.5, 0.16666666666666666, 0.16666666666666666, 0.16666666666666666 ], "fault_tree_emphasis": [ 0.16666666666666666, 0.5, 0.16666666666666666, 0.16666666666666666 ] }, "definition_sensitivity": { "residual_value_thresholds": [ 0.001, 0.01, 0.05 ], "persistence_years": [ 3, 5, 10 ], "quantification": "閾値と確率の対応は識別不能。構造的回復不能の条件はすべてで維持する。閾値別の数値を捏造せず方向だけ論じる。" }, "unmodelled_risk_sensitivity": { "additional_annual_intensity": [ 0.001, 0.003 ], "formula": "1-(1-P_pool(t))*exp(-u*t)", "warning": "列挙外原因を仮置きする上方感度。背景ハザードと重複し得るので中央値には追加しない。" }, "global_intensity_sensitivity": { "multipliers": [ 0.5, 2.0 ], "formula": "1-(1-P_pool)^m", "warning": "統合生存曲線の累積ハザードを一律変更したwhat-if。損失閾値の変換とは対応付けない。" }, "reference_false_negative_sensitivity": { "non_candidate_permanent_loss_fraction": [ 0.05, 0.1 ], "formula": "q_ref=(k/n)*r+(1-k/n)*delta; P_ref_new=1-(1-q_ref)^(c*t/T)", "warning": "候補外の回復不能な価値喪失を0と置く中央仮定への感度。deltaは測定値ではない。" }, "event_scope_clarification": "BTCという資産自体の実質経済価値のほぼ完全な消滅を対象とする。窃取や保有者交代だけでBTC市場価値が維持される場合は対象外。承継・フォークは既存保有権の経済的連続性を確認する。" } }, "information_cutoff_exclusive": "2026-11-01T00:00:00Z", "source_ledger": "permanent_loss_sources.csv", "cohort_source_ledger": "permanent_loss_cohort_sources.json", "model_input_status": "Cutoff-restricted model inputs; analysis prepared 2026-11-10. Dates of source observations and publications are preserved separately." }