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  "validation_scope": "Quarterly origins from June 2018, available trailing sample up to 120 months; 12/24-month anchored log-odds-change forecasts. Horizons overlap and are not independent trials. Slight error reduction is not proof of a 2060 economic law. Curvature/level residuals do not identify a hard floor.",
  "statistical_risk": "Use the 120-month standardized innovations after subtracting the fitted curve. All price paths still have common stochastic market shocks and independent permanent loss.",
  "sources": [
    "boxcox1964transformations",
    "koenker1978quantiles",
    "hyndman2021fpp-toolbox",
    "coinmetrics2026data-community"
  ],
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}