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    "scope": "Only the Bayesian component; same priors and survival observation, changes the subjective evidence power. Not a revised pooled loss forecast.",
    "rows": [
      {
        "evidence_power": 0.0,
        "posterior_weights": [
          0.45326189598070304,
          0.41097546559337683,
          0.13576263842592018
        ],
        "probability_2060_start": 0.2874675794174982
      },
      {
        "evidence_power": 0.5,
        "posterior_weights": [
          0.49491286090044234,
          0.39169296243588814,
          0.11339417666366962
        ],
        "probability_2060_start": 0.2701503196030628
      },
      {
        "evidence_power": 1.0,
        "posterior_weights": [
          0.5358804001276644,
          0.3701990039800332,
          0.09392059589230237
        ],
        "probability_2060_start": 0.253944203205197
      }
    ]
  },
  "family_office_count_crosscheck": {
    "source_id": "goldmansachs2025family-office",
    "years": [
      2021,
      2023,
      2025
    ],
    "held_fraction": [
      0.16,
      0.26,
      0.33
    ],
    "fits": [
      {
        "endpoint": 0.5,
        "time_constant_years": 5.761,
        "fit_2023": 0.25972510431520185,
        "fit_2025": 0.3301999250107628
      },
      {
        "endpoint": 0.65,
        "time_constant_years": 9.206,
        "fit_2023": 0.25568275672313,
        "fit_2025": 0.33268145235618307
      },
      {
        "endpoint": 0.8,
        "time_constant_years": 12.634,
        "fit_2023": 0.2537016885967607,
        "fit_2025": 0.3336846171218271
      }
    ],
    "scope": "Repeated cross-sectional Goldman Sachs surveys, not the same investor panel; crypto ownership, not bitcoin alone; investor count, not asset-weighted adoption. The endpoint is assumed, not estimated."
  },
  "transition_half_completion_years": {
    "risk_tau15": 10.39720770839918,
    "adoption_tau16": 11.090354888959125,
    "utility_tau20": 13.862943611198906
  },
  "conditional_holding_crosschecks": {
    "swib_2024_ibit_usd": 321502000.0,
    "swib_2024_manager_aum_lower_bound_usd": 162000000000.0,
    "swib_2024_ibit_fraction_upper_bound": 0.0019845802469135804,
    "massmutual_purchase_usd": 100000000.0,
    "conning_general_account_reference_usd": 224000000000.0,
    "massmutual_purchase_fraction_reference": 0.0004464285714285714,
    "scope": "Manager-wide rather than WRS-only denominator for SWIB; AUM includes non-pension funds. MassMutual is an acquisition-cost to general-account reference comparison reported by Conning, not a current market weight."
  },
  "uncertainty_scale_interpretation": {
    "log_sd_multiplicative_p10_p90": {
      "0.04": [
        0.950029670640809,
        1.0525987039178315
      ],
      "0.06": [
        0.9259888421406628,
        1.0799266195132993
      ],
      "0.2": [
        0.7739017796600125,
        1.292153637945265
      ],
      "0.3": [
        0.6808144549396241,
        1.4688289779168713
      ],
      "0.4": [
        0.5989239645609346,
        1.669661024055183
      ],
      "0.45": [
        0.5617500918021072,
        1.7801510219463907
      ],
      "0.6": [
        0.4635083220547375,
        2.157458566368321
      ],
      "0.75": [
        0.38244758256253547,
        2.6147374061031914
      ]
    },
    "utilization_beta": {
      "shape": [
        4,
        2
      ],
      "mean": 0.6666666666666666,
      "p10": 0.4161096253804711,
      "p90": 0.8877650414541415,
      "scope": "Scenario width, not sampling confidence."
    }
  }
}